By Gaurav Parab
As the surreal events unfolded over the last two months, it has been repeatedly said that no one saw this coming.
Really ? You did not, but some folks did.
Newspaper reports, Ted Talks, and previously hidden documents claim we were warned by scientists, experts, entrepreneurs and The Simpsons (like always) about a coming pandemic. Nostradamus definitely saw you working from home in your shorts in April 2020.
While the experts knew such an outbreak will be devastating, the visuals and the consequences were brought to life on paper and on film so many times by so many artists in the past. A world so outrageous that you got to be that little bit insane, a whole lot unscientific, and sip on either expensive Scotch or dirt cheap wine to even imagine it.
And imagine it the writers did, even if viewers shrugged it off and reduced it to blockbuster entertainment tropes. Life follows art, but only in limited proportion the world always felt till Covid came along.
There is no way that Will Smith will practice his golf swing off the wing of a Blackbird on the USS Intrepid.
He can today, if he is so inclined.
So how did the artists get the post catastrophe view correct? How are they eerily accurate when predicting science and tech and the way people behave - without understanding charts, graphs, focus group studies and those mighty algorithms?
If I was to greatly ....like really... like giga ton massively to simplify the creative discovery process (which is man's most complex act next only to connecting to a network printer) I as a writer of plots and worlds will use two words with a question mark at the end.
What If ?
What If is the engine that pumps out views that are novel and unique.
A question, a search, an attitude which when asked by an artist - causes the boundaries of what she knows to be pushed a bit further to the edge of the unknown. When asked in a compounded manner, What if pushes a creator's imagination far enough that she sees a shape to what has not even happened or has not been seen.
In writing and while crafting plots, what if makes things go from point A to point B rest of the world be damned. When a writer throws What if to himself, unlike a scientist or an entrepreneur - he is not bound by the physical or chemical or economic laws that govern the way things work and people act. That's where the magic happens ( and mostly book sales and royalty cheques fall).
That's how writers see tomorrow yesterday. The cell phone, the Ipad, the space travel, the organ replacement, the lockdown world all seen in movies and books, because some writer somewhere on a nondescript desk decades ago asked himself What If.
Now, let me stick my neck out and apply the 'What If' method to how I see this situation unfolding. My predictions are mine alone, and if they do turn out to be wildly inaccurate - it is not due to the writer and his method in me, but because of everything else that my education has reduced me to. If anything, I would even risk saying that the timelines I predict maybe longer than in reality. We may be closer to victory.
1. Prediction One: By June End the worst will be behind us.
This is what I sense on trying to answer the What Ifs to - herd immunity, ubiquitous testing, large scale testing and faith in our ability to fight.
Streets will be filled 60 to 70% in affluent nations and more in developing and densely populated countries. Most people will wear masks as precautions, if not for anything else, and except for 3 or 4 sectors - all industries will be on the road to normalcy. We will be in the middle of our recovery.
Unknown to us, by June end large populations may already have had the virus, and while we may not have herd immunity , we will realize total infections were much higher than we believed. Within the 'Containment Zones' and 'Hot Spots' herd immunity would have kicked in and inhabitants will be at low risk of re-infection. We will also discover that the fatality rate, bulked up by the large unseen base of infections will eventually turn out to be really low. Less than 2 percent, maybe less than 1 percent.
2. Prediction Two: By May End, We will realize we had Unseen Friends
By Mid to End of May, we will get evidence that something from the past like the BCG vaccine, or some traditional habits have unknowingly helped slow down the spread in different pockets of the world. The evidence will not be clinching, but it will be good enough to use as a silver bullet. Governments will ensure populations get access to this temporary cure / immunity booster / protective mechanism relevant in local contexts - ultimately leading up to the shortening of our war over Covid.
3. Prediction Three: False Starts, but no knockout punches after May
While infections will continue by around mid may - treatment protocols around the world will be mature enough with increasing understanding of the disease and how to fight it. Plasma therapy or something else will further cut down fatalities. There might be a yo yo between infection clusters popping up and subsiding till June end as nations start opening up mid May onwards, but we will all be able to deal with it well.
Sure, we will go 'Oh No. Not again' as surgical lock-downs are enforced and lifted, but the intensity will be low. They will not be the knockout punches of March, but glancing blows. We will be better prepared and will have standard operating procedures in place. I will not be able to celebrate my wife's birthday in mid June with friends, but we never ever did that in the first place.
Prediction 4: Return to Normalcy Begins July:
Covid will hit some parts of the world in waves through July and Aug but at least in major economies - testing methods will be so different and advanced from what they are now that testing will become ubiquitous. We will have some tech geek or institution come with a non invasive X ray like scanner that will be deployed in public places and we will have pregnancy test type detectors at home. False results will be an exception. The public test systems in transport hubs, offices, and markets will detect infection in seconds - if not less - comparing test results from the tested against huge databases using AI and associated dark arts - telling authorities instantly of infections - so the sick amongst us are removed from crowds, and quarantined.
Prediction 5: By Oct we may not be even tracking of vaccine trials anymore:
Treatments will improve by Oct enough that even if the virus mutates, stop gap immunity boosters / temp vaccine for health workers and other frontliners will make spreads manageable. The war will continue, but unlike this present world war type large theater effort it will be more surgical - special forces type where as soon as significant clusters are seen - they will be contained and blocked. More effectively and more humanely now.
Economies will have a glorious bounce back around Oct, people will tentatively start travelling around the world in redesigned planes, trains and buses. Uber and other personal transport services will have containment pods to nullify risk to driver and passengers . Companies, champions in certain sectors will start adapting and getting into adjacent sectors in essential services to hedge risks.
Prediction 6: A Scare Again in November:
Around Nov, China and other Asian countries may see another wave but the world we will be all right. I am thinking - China, US France or Great Britain - will have a vaccine ready which they will deploy for frontliners on a need to use basis. A lot of these will be manufactured in India, and as part of the contracts - Indians will also get early access to the vaccine.
Vaccines from around the world will show success by Dec - Jan and production will boom. I may have a couple of friends over for my Birthday in Jan End, if they bring Beer. I will tell them that evening that a week ago Netflix bought the right to my web series. They will pretend to be happy, but wont be.
Hundreds of millions of doses will start rolling out in Jan-Feb. 60 percent of the world population will be vaccinated by March, if natural herd immunity has not kicked in by then. Vaccines will cost around 100 dollars in the developed world, and the cost will be borne by business owners for their employees and families.
In India, and other nations the vaccine will be for around 600 to 700 bucks for those who can afford it, and free for all the others. Cost of the vaccine will keep going down. The immunization programs will be extremely large and widespread - and even safe individuals will get it again. Corporate and govt institutions will scramble and spend to get employees vaccinated asap.
Prediction 7: Back to Normal in April 2021 with only some countries in Africa perhaps struggling for an additional few months. We will not wear masks ( except Instagram influencers out of their need to defy logic ) and the annoying pouts will be out in all their glory by April 27 2021. A year to date from now.
We will be all right. The key as has been from the day this started is to play for time and not let healthcare services be overwhelmed. I think, after a few hard lessons - we are close to passing the phase. Governments can only do so much. Economies will have to be opened else vulnerable societies will descend into civil wars as law and order collapses. As they start opening in May, we as individuals will need to remain vigilant and not go dancing to Saat Samundar Par this soon. Most importantly, we need to avoid anxiety and focus on the positive. For those of us with other medical conditions, we should try to get back in shape. Boost our immunity. Give us a better chance to see this through. Good days will be back again. Let there be no doubt. I am a writer. How can I be wrong.
In every plot, there is a beat sheet that divides the story into three broad acts. I think in this fast developing story of our lives, we are somewhere towards the end of Act 2 right now. It is time for the hero - in this case - the brightest minds in the world - to fight back. And fighting back is what the world is doing. Sure, the dark night of the soul, the moments of despair and other negative beats in the sheet are yet to come, and the bad guys will close in but come Act 3 - our hero will triumph using the skills he always had. The hero in this case is mankind. And the skills we have are courage, spirit of curiosity, and that part of us that fights to have a happy closure.
This is what the natural writer sees as the future. This is the answer I get when i ask myself What If, to questions like pace of vaccine research, treatments, and how governments will respond.
Before we collectively type Fade Out to the Covid Story, I wish you the very best in the days ahead.
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