Golf and the Burning Train

 

Golf and The Burning Train

By Gaurav Parab

A piece of advice for everyone. Be very careful when driving golf carts anywhere in the world. This morning my cart accelerator gave way sending the cart with poor old me inside hurtling across the cart path at great speed. 

Now, I may be middle aged and I may have a paunch - but I have done my share of pilates. So I got my feet into a pilates V and glanced down. Oops.

A spring or a screw has come off the accelerator. I slammed the brake, It was as useless as having a scientific calculator with you in an English exam. Clearly, when an immovable object meets an irresistible force, the irresistible force wins if the force is the accelerator and the object is the brake. This cart was not stopping. No way.  

Resigned to my fate, I thought it is interesting that it all ends like this. Not on one of those midnight motorcycle rides through the Himalayas - but in a eenie meenie tiny golf buggy. Never made an Eagle. Or broke 80.  And God I really should have made that last putt for par. I even have a freaking PAR in my name. 

Back to the cart. The second thing that came to my mind was, boy it is such a good stroke of luck that I AM INSIDE this cart and no one else. You ask, lucky how?

Lucky because I am an expert. A writer and a research analyst. A rare combination of one person doing two lowly paid jobs. Let me explain.

I recently wrote a car chase scene where the hero, a Commando a Vinod Mehra fan, is inside an old Contessa chasing the femme fatale when his car brakes fail. Good for the commando that he is a Vinod Mehra fan, for in a display of quick thinking he remembers the Burning Train and how Vinod Mehra's character brings the runaway train to a halt. 

He builds a steep incline. (See the researcher in me proving his utility)

I need to look for an incline. So I swirled the wheel around. Went over a tee box, fleetingly going airborne, image of a top button undone Vinod Mehra smoking a Charms cigarette popping in my head. 

And I saw that we were not going towards an incline. We were headed for a slope. To a nallah. Bad choice. 

Hit the brakes again. No use. The broken accelerator grinned back at me like Hannibal Lecter. "“Well Clarice, Have The Lambs Stopped Screaming?”

Wait. I know a place. I moved the wheel around towards the woods. I have been here many times. Second shot. 170 yards. Always to the right. The ball refusing to draw. On an incline! The cart continued to pick up pace. One tree. Avoided. Second tree avoided. 

I wish those Pro V1s could navigate like I am doing now. Aryton Senna, you live on forever in my heart.  

Anyways, there was no way the next tree could be avoided, I bailed out flicking the wheel. I landed on my feet. The cart did not hit the tree. A second later, Vinod Mehra was replaced by an image of Bernard Hill, the actor who played the Captain of the Titanic. And Bernard Hill said, shame on you Gaurav Parab. With a Par in your name. Abandoning your ship like that. 

Aye Aye. I moved swiftly to the new direction the cart had taken. I stood in the way. Eye to Eye. Eastwood.  Eli Wallach. Lee Van Cleef. The showdown. My playing partners called out, Idiot. Get out of the way. 

Made sense. I did that, missing the cart and saluting it in the same seamless movement. Deflecting it slightly for it to finally go up the incline. Then all of us jumped on it, but the cart - like the Undertaker in the 2007 Royal Rumble  was not giving up, the cart continued to fight. I saluted it again. Someone removed the keys. And with a final growl, the cart stopped.

No scratch on me. After all it is a golf course and I am involved. 

But again, jokes apart, things could have ended very differently for me, even with all my obvious expertise for these situations. The last time I blamed anyone for anything it was KL Rahul. See machines break, even with maintenance. As users we need to do what is in our sphere of control. 

Drive slowly. Dont look at the phone when driving, even if you are in a golf cart. And most importantly. Watch the burning train. Take care.

A Mother Outside the Emergency Room

By Gaurav Parab

From dozens of hospital visits over the years, the most heartbreaking scene that I have witnessed remains an old mother wailing outside the Emergency /Casualty room for a son or daughter wheeled in after a road accident.

Relatives surround the mother, afraid of telling her, avoiding her eyes by looking elsewhere, dealing silently with their own grief - a combination of missing the departed and seeing the plight of the mother who has had the very air taken out of her.

Unfortunately, it is a scene that is invariably played at every visit. Such is the devastating toll road accidents take in India. And unfortunately, most happen because someone is speeding, going the wrong way, or not wearing a helmet or seat belt. Little, trivial things that save a grand total of two or three seconds yet amount to a lifetime of sorrow for the mothers who remain.

Nothing will change by this post as thinking one is bullet proof is part of our upbringing. Most parents themselves teach their kids 'chalta hain' and by demonstrating the same atrocious behavior. Setting them up for a moment in the future that they never imagined possible and was always supposed to be a newspaper story about someone else's kid.

Get into a good college, getting a job, save money are the major problems that occupy the mindspace for majority of our citizens.
Till that screeching of the brakes, the shattering of the windshield, that call from the hospital, and that moment outside a glass door when a doctor approaches shaking her head as relatives embrace you in a meaningless hug.

#india #roadsafety #thatwriterfromindia #gauravparab

A Writing Update

 Fade In.

The last year or so have been hectic, and my apologies for not staying in touch. This blog has not been updated for a long time, but to those who care for what I have had to share over so many years - It is not that I have not been writing.

I have been writing. More than at any point in my life.

And thanks to whoever is in charge of the writer destiny department up there, there have been a few wins.  So this blog as an update, an apology for not staying in touch, and for showing off. 

A few months back, Rustom and the Last Storyteller of Almora movie rights were acquired. Congratulations to each one of you, who have believed in the book more than I ever have. This has been sometime coming, with multiple false starts with multiple producers but like always I was lucky that I waited, and more importantly I noticed an email from the producer who had been writing to me for a long time - but his email were going to Spam. No thanks to Gmail which lets all the email from Pooja about my Tax returns come in with open arms and blocked the email that can possibly change the direction of my life. 

Long story short, I read the last email that producer (now friend) sent, one thing led to another - and we had a deal. It has found the most lovely home, and more importantly has someone who is championing it and has the same creative vision like I do. Someone who gets IT. Like hopefully, most of you did.

But wait. I did say I have been writing a lot.

3 Webseries and 1 movie.

The good fortune continues. All 3 stories I co-wrote with my buddy - an accomplished novelist- have been optioned by producers - who are guilty of making the most critically acclaimed movies and the biggest blockbusters in India. These folks have come to become our friends, and we all are super excited about the future once they get greenlit. 

Now, not sure if you are aware in real terms this is significant but the journey of a story from a writer's mind to screen is long and often is but a false start. Getting Optioned or rights being sold does not mean that you will see it on a screen anytime soon. There are many hurdles, from getting a OTT on board to getting a showrunner, cast etc. and most projects do get shelved.  But these are kickass stories, and I have no doubt that they will get made at some point. And I hope when they do, I will continue enjoying your love and support and not be abandoned in the manner that I have perhaps abandoned writing to you. 

I will return to my roots. I will blog more often. I will lose weight. 

Thanks so much friends. Do leave a comment, write to me at gauravparab@gmail.com. My biggest fear is out of sight, out of mind like characters tell one another in YA books. I hope this is not an empty hall I am addressing! Would be good to hear from you. Any thing. Any word. 

Warm Regards

Gaurav

Birdie in Hand...

By Gaurav Parab

Golfers love to give advice about the game to anyone willing to listen. Or not willing to listen. Or anyone within visual distance. Or anyone who is not even playing Golf.

One of the most common piece of advice that goes around is about Birdie Putts. Everyone tells each other to go for it. Never putt the ball short. Be aggressive on your birdie putt so it atleast reaches the hole. The closest Indian philosophy equivalent of it would be 'Pooch ke toh dekho' loosely translated to ' If you ask, you may get it'

The idea is if the ball - even if hit too hard - reaches the hole at least you give yourself a chance of a birdie. If it is hit with no energy, as most golfers do out of nervousness, then you dont make a birdie. Physics has not chill, you see. Somehow in our minds, a putt that goes 3 feet beyond the Pin is much more radioactive than the one that falls 3 feet short.

We are afraid that a Par in hand, is better than a birdie in the bush.

I often share this piece of advise even on things beyond golf. Go for it. Ask the question. Give yourself a shot.

So I took my own advice, watched the two seasons of Ted Lasso, repeated Pushpa Jhukega Nahin and went to the course with an aggressive mindset. Total toxic masculinity. I went for the birdie putts. I totally went for it.

Worst Round of Golf Ever.

Forget Birdie putts, Forget Pars - I watched my ball go to and fro from the hole like a long tennis rally. I made a goods train of bogeys and double bogeys long enough to reach Jammu Tawi from Pune.

Never ever take such advice. Two putt and stay safe.

@gauravparab 

The Last Shot of the Day

 By Gaurav Parab

Yesterday was one of those nights. As soon as your exhausted body hits bed, you expect to be knocked out cold. It started well. I drifted off sensing that deep sleep is a few moments away. No need of ear plugs. No need of white noise or calming music. No need to call the police on the noisy neighbors.

But a piece fell out of place. Sleep, turned into a star on a cloudy night. Came, disappeared, promised guiding light and then broke promise. You seek consistency of state. You are denied consistency of state. The body is done and aches for release. But the mind is an ice cube cruelly taken out, and then put in the refrigerator just as it starts to melt. Blur. Clarity. Blur. Clarity. And plenty of agitation like atoms subjected to heat.

I did not sleep well last night.

It is the image from the last tee. The residual dew glinting off the fairway. Mocking water hazard in front. Ball setup low, and body relaxed. I look down. 9 iron, neutral grip. Keep your head down, I hear my dead father whisper. Keep your head down he repeats, as I drill my heels into the ground. I will make him proud.
I am awake. The ceiling fan creaks more than usual. A watchman says something to another below my balcony. A motorcycle engine goes off like the crack of a rifle a hundred yards away. Teenagers. About time they start cycling to their parties. Burn some carbs, let me sleep.
My eyes close. Ball sits tight on the tee; I look down again. Neutral grip. Keep your head down. Pink Color Tee. Pink color tee? Right. I bought it for it is easy to spot. 120 yards. Keep your head down throughout the swing. Yes father. I got this.
My eyes open and look at the ceiling. A thin trail of sweat forms somewhere above my ear, snakes around its rim and then goes down the side of my neck. The electricity has gone off. The fan creaks louder in desperation, and the blades sigh before movement stops.
Ball set up; I look down. My father’s ghost has gone for a smoke. So, I remind myself to keep my head down. I practice my back swing. A 3/4ths punch won’t do. I glance up to the pin in the distance. I practice a full swing. I block out the water hazard. I shuffle an inch to address the ball again. I swing.
The feedback of club face crashing into golf ball softly runs along the shaft through my palms. My hands relay the message to that mischievous part of human brain that registers a good sporting outcome. Sweet spot. Effortless. Ping. A plan executed perfectly.
I kept the promise. I resisted the temptation to look up and follow the flight. The ball must be soaring now, about to reach its apex. But a man cannot resist forever. My eyes move upwards, followed by my head. I should not have looked up.
Jodie Foster. They should have sent a poet. A dot in the horizon blurs into a smaller point, before turning into a flash of white striking the green. The first bounce is soft like rear wheels on a jet liner tentatively skimming tarmac. The second softer. It rolls as I hold my pose in case someone watches. It rolls. My god it rolls. The club is behind me. My back leg remains raised on my toe. 
I should not have looked up. I should not have put my eyes on that thing of beauty.
Agitation.
My head plays the shot on the way home on loop. I take a practice swing in the elevator. Lunch. Dinner. On work calls. The rising arrow head on the PowerPoint is my soaring golf ball. Everyone on the video call is on mute, and I hear is the ping. All I hear is that ping, and all I feel is the delightful shockwave travelling through my hands. I look at my hands. I get it now. I get why those girls in the Mills & Boonses or whatever they were called fall for a guy that kisses their hand.
That impact late morning kissed my hand and now I am in love.
I am awake. Why did I hit that perfect shot on the last hole? What good is an experience that cannot be immediately repeated? I should have just walked away and not looked up. Left the damn thing on the green. I need to unsee. I need to hit a golf ball again. Right now.
I am up. I don’t take the elevator. What if the power goes out and I am stuck forever with the unfulfilled dream of hitting a ball like that again? I tumble down the stairs, gun the car engine. Piston moves. Fuel air mixture compresses. Ignition. Combustion. Boom. I rocket towards the course with the squealing of tires and pushing aside of gravel.
First Tee. I know how it works. I know the formula. Neutral grip, head down, let your hips do all the work. It will sail before landing near the pin. It will…I swing. Clank. Nail hitting blackboard. Rear bumper hitting parking wall. The shaft vibrates. The ball goes like an arrow aimed at the ground. The trees, the sand and the birds laugh in synch like a musical.
I smile. I pick my tee. Hopefully, this bad from persists and I hit something as terrible as this on the last tee today. For I really need to sleep tonight.
#thatwriterfromindia #golf #pgatour

Chacha Vidhayak Hain, Let the Rich Pay for the Vaccine

They Will Anyways Get Hold of It.

By Gaurav Parab, #thatwriterfromindia

Just minutes after that glorious Mohali semi-final in 2011, a friend sent three messages in quick succession. Awesome Man!! I have tickets for the final. You want?

After DRS +Sachin he was the second most wonderful thing in the world that day. My mind flashed forward to me at the Wankhede. Amir Khan to my right. Rajni to my left. Anu Malik in his fluorescent shirt humming Tan Tanna Tan Tan Tan Tara somewhere close by.

‘How much’

’45 K’

‘How did you..’

‘Chacha Vidhayak hain’

‘Are they 100% genuine?’

He paused longer than he should have. ‘Yeah, I guess so. But no guarantees man. You know how it is’

I promised to get back soon.

This time he did not pause. ‘5 minutes. There are others I can ask, you know’.

The politicians, associations, and the rich through the world cup had cornered all the tickets. The measly numbers left for the public were sold out in a few seconds online. I should not have hesitated. The amount was not orbital, as everyone had heard rumor's of tickets costing lakhs in the black market. My friend was connected. This could be the experience of a lifetime. I made up my mind.

I texted my reply to him.

 

***

From those dark September days, when we all knew someone who was infected or worse – the decline in Covid cases has been sharp. Vaccine candidates also seem to be on track for a mid-2021 launch if not earlier. The Oxford/Serum effort & ICMR/ Bharat Bio candidates for India are in phase 3 trials. The Russian potion swirling through the veins of Putin’s daughter is at our gates.

From whether a vaccine will be found, we have come to when will it be jabbed.

Recent Government announcements indicate activity in planning the rollout and fixing supply chain gaps. Apprehensions about failure rate of vaccine candidates in the past, and long periods of discovery are now retired by human ingenuity, technology and resources.

We have two questions remaining. When and Who Gets it first. These will define the future of our pandemic response and in many ways define the final human costs.

Who Gets it First?

Most governments (including India) have prudently announced that emergency service personal and vulnerable populations like the elderly will to be the first to get a shot. This makes sense as pandemics, especially those triggered by viruses, don’t get stamped out overnight. Viruses like society maintenance charges in Pune have an annoying habit of lingering around, with cases popping up just when you thought the price was paid. At this stage, the smart play is to focus on saving lives, instead of breaking transmission chains. That ship sailed a long time ago.

For some nations with manageable populations and large financial resources – access priority is a temporary issue. Doses are already being manufactured at risk, and deals have been stitched together with pharma giants to reserve stocks. With small populations, some developed nations will vaccinate enough citizens to achieve herd immunity in months with the virus eventually tapering off. It is countries like India, US, and some Latin & African nations that face a challenge due to the scale and size of our populations and other challenges.

India too has agreements in place (Like Dr Reddys + Sputnik) and is also the global vaccine manufacturing capital. If the situation gets really bad in subsequent waves, India can whisk away large quantities in national interest. But we are a smart and fair people, and hopefully won’t go that way since all it will do is nudge other nations to ramp up their own capabilities while lining us up for punishment through other means.

Given gaps in distribution mechanisms and the fact that we may need two does per individual – here are India specific approaches for two objectives - Save Lives and Save the Economy. And then at the risk of losing my Che Guevara T Shirt, let’s look at how can we Save the Rich. Below both objectives, I have listed the priority populations to immunize first.

OBJECTIVE 1: Save Lives

Priority 1: A Country for Old Men

 Vulnerable due to work, age, or disease

Nature of Work: No brainer. The Govt is right in reserving initial vaccine supplies for healthcare, and emergency services like police and Defence forces. Doctors and cops have paid a disproportionate price for being in roles that demand high ‘engagement’ with the public. However, given initial supplies will be limited, further nuance instead of a blanket rollout should be exercised to identify highly vulnerable groups within these communities. For example, for defence forces, while it is tempting to go the emotional way - prioritize the Northern and Western sectors given the military situation there while assigning lower priority to administrative roles like in Army HQ and peace postings.

The old, the vulnerable and those with co-morbities: Assuming the vaccine is conclusively proven to be safe – any hospital admission related to a set of diseases like diabetes, cardiac conditions should have the bundled option of getting a vaccine at the time of admission or doctor’s visit. This will help reduce mortality significantly as the data indicates those with co-morbities make up a large chunk of fatalities.

For the old, there should be a blanket rollout without nuance for those who are open to vaccination.

Priority 2: Hotshots

Targeted Vaccination of clusters and hotspots

Hotspots at the time when the vaccine is rolled out should be smartly and surgically targeted for breaking transmission chains and reducing mortality. Guerrilla warfare like programs including rapid pop up kiosks, mobile clinics, election voting booth like infrastructure can be deployed for societies, slums and at Gram panchayat offices if infection rates are high in a micro region.

Additionally, high density areas like slums should be covered given most of our sanitation workers, drivers, construction professionals live in improvised conditions. This will also help reduce the economic impact. Which brings me to objective 2.

OBJECTIVE 2: Save the Economy

The lockdown has taught us that tangential economic challenges cause as much damage as the health-related issues. Even if green shoots are already visible across sectors, subsequent waves may leave us struggling. After mortality is slowed, we move towards innovative approaches to fix the economic disease. The government should draw up top down list of sectors that employ the highest Indians - including the disorganized construction sector, hospitality, travel and education. Doses should be provided to these groups through their unions, trade bodies and NGOs to trigger recovery and instill confidence. 

All of this should be done keeping in mind principles of equality, where every individual, whether at a private enterprise, or a PSU is an Indian. We should not give into instinct and inoculate Government employees first. We are all in this together.  For example, in transport while railways should get high priority do not ignore private airlines for early access.

Additionally, it would be nice to somehow embed gratitude in early rollouts to Textile manufacturers (For PPE effort) , IT support services, Chemists, Bank Employees, power generation companies, telecom and utilities and other professional groups that were the backbone of the nation's response, took disproportionate personal risk, and deserve an early shot of the good stuff once the program is running smoothly.

Back to my text reply on the night of March 30, 2011.

Sorry. You go ahead with your other friends, I texted back.

Not because I am some self-righteous, doing it the proper way sort of guy. I was just not sure if the ticket was genuine or not. I was not going to risk that sort of money, only to take the Neeta Volvo to Mumbai and be ticked off by the guard at the metal detector. The trouble involved was fine, but the thought of missing the final on TV for a dodgy promise to be inside the ground was a risky bet.

The acquaintance did make it to the final. Tuck Fhat. The ticket was good.

I saw the pictures. I heard him sing AR Rehman’s Vande Mataram with the thousands when Dhoni and Yuvraj were batting.

An old lesson reinforced. They always find a way. Which brings me to the 3^rd category of folks who should get early access. This is not going to read pretty, but hear me out.

Monetize the Leakage, and Save the Economy

Let’s be realistic. Like in that cricket match, the rich and connected always find a way. This is a human reality that has lasted for a thousand years around the world. We need not fight it. What we can do is ensure this comes with a hefty price so they get vaccinated legally, and safely and not in the black markets that will soon emerge.

Call it the caveman mentality, or a Darwinian truth – a lot of people will dodge the gates, the ticketing system, the priority lists and get hold of a vaccine shot before their sanctioned turn comes. 

As sure as the Sun rises in the East, the rich always get to the feast.

Cringy rhymes aside, we need to make peace with this reality, and properly channel it for the larger good.  Charge a premium for early access, and subsidize the doses for the poor.  

This premium early access can also creatively help solve sector specific issues when procured by enterprises and not individuals.

For example, say an airline can bundle the premium access vaccination with a flight ticket to the UK at a cost to the traveler. Most western nations, including the UK have existing travel related requirements like a No TB certificate. Similar Covid related measures will come into play when the western world has immunized their populations and are weary of cases from outside coming in.

Similarly, large IT and Consulting firms will also need to enable employees to travel abroad or return to the secure networks at some point next year.

There are political and ethical issues with this approach. But this situation is unique, and given there is going to be ‘leakage’ why not pre-empt it and design methods to positively channelize human instinct of self interest.

So what is the ideal Amiro ka quota so it does not eat into the stock of the poor. There could also be a situation where early on people are not willing to take the shot. A wait and watch approach – letting the cat drink the milk and see if it survives for 10 minutes. This may open up stocks for those interested in paying for it.

The quota can be calculated basis the ground situation when the first batch breaks skin. If it is Ramsay brother level scary, junk the plan and do right while stopping leakages. If the situation is not critical, a Yash Raj cringe fest but without songs – have a stock of at least 1-3 % reserved for premium early access.

Finally, as I wrap up my views and wait for the hate mail to arrive – lets take a pause and acknowledge the fight we have all put up. No matter how the rollout happens in India or elsewhere, the work put in by scientists, researchers, government planners, economists, statisticians is a phenomenal human achievement with no parallel in our history.

The experience of this pandemic, the tools, computational capabilities, and ideas developed around the world will serve us well the next time someone fancies a bat soup or whatever led to this outbreak.

Look forward to your views.

If Covid was a book, here is how it will end. A writer imagines the path to victory

By Gaurav Parab

As the surreal events unfolded over the last two months, it has been repeatedly said that no one saw this coming.

Really ? You did not, but some folks did.

Newspaper reports, Ted Talks, and previously hidden documents claim we were warned by scientists, experts, entrepreneurs and The Simpsons (like always) about a coming pandemic. Nostradamus definitely saw you working from home in your shorts in April 2020.

While the experts knew such an outbreak will be devastating, the visuals and the consequences were brought to life on paper and on film so many times by so many artists in the past. A world so outrageous that you got to be that little bit insane, a whole lot unscientific, and sip on either expensive Scotch or dirt cheap wine to even imagine it.

And imagine it the writers did, even if viewers shrugged it off and reduced it to blockbuster entertainment tropes. Life follows art, but only in limited proportion the world always felt till Covid came along.

There is no way that Will Smith will practice his golf swing off the wing of a Blackbird on the USS Intrepid.

He can today, if he is so inclined.

So how did the artists get the post catastrophe view correct? How are they eerily accurate when predicting science and tech and the way people behave - without understanding charts, graphs, focus group studies and those mighty algorithms?

If I was to greatly ....like really... like giga ton massively to simplify the creative discovery process (which is man's most complex act next only to connecting to a network printer) I as a writer of plots and worlds will use two words with a question mark at the end.

What If ?

What If is the engine that pumps out views that are novel and unique.

A question, a search, an attitude which when asked by an artist - causes the boundaries of what she knows to be pushed a bit further to the edge of the unknown. When asked in a compounded manner, What if pushes a creator's imagination far enough that she sees a shape to what has not even happened or has not been seen.

In writing and while crafting plots, what if makes things go from point A to point B rest of the world be damned. When a writer throws What if to himself, unlike a scientist or an entrepreneur - he is not bound by the physical or chemical or economic laws that govern the way things work and people act. That's where the magic happens ( and mostly book sales and royalty cheques fall).

That's how writers see tomorrow yesterday. The cell phone, the Ipad, the space travel, the organ replacement, the lockdown world all seen in movies and books, because some writer somewhere on a nondescript desk decades ago asked himself What If.

Now, let me stick my neck out and apply the 'What If' method to how I see this situation unfolding. My predictions are mine alone, and if they do turn out to be wildly inaccurate - it is not due to the writer and his method in me, but because of everything else that my education has reduced me to. If anything, I would even risk saying that the timelines I predict maybe longer than in reality. We may be closer to victory.

1. Prediction One: By June End the worst will be behind us.

This is what I sense on trying to answer the What Ifs to - herd immunity, ubiquitous testing, large scale testing and faith in our ability to fight.

Streets will be filled 60 to 70% in affluent nations and more in developing and densely populated countries. Most people will wear masks as precautions, if not for anything else, and except for 3 or 4 sectors - all industries will be on the road to normalcy. We will be in the middle of our recovery.
Unknown to us, by June end large populations may already have had the virus, and while we may not have herd immunity , we will realize total infections were much higher than we believed. Within the 'Containment Zones' and 'Hot Spots' herd immunity would have kicked in and inhabitants will be at low risk of re-infection. We will also discover that the fatality rate, bulked up by the large unseen base of infections will eventually turn out to be really low. Less than 2 percent, maybe less than 1 percent.

2. Prediction Two: By May End, We will realize we had Unseen Friends

By Mid to End of May, we will get evidence that something from the past like the BCG vaccine, or some traditional habits have unknowingly helped slow down the spread in different pockets of the world. The evidence will not be clinching, but it will be good enough to use as a silver bullet. Governments will ensure populations get access to this temporary cure / immunity booster / protective mechanism relevant in local contexts - ultimately leading up to the shortening of our war over Covid.

3. Prediction Three: False Starts, but no knockout punches after May

While infections will continue by around mid may - treatment protocols around the world will be mature enough with increasing understanding of the disease and how to fight it. Plasma therapy or something else will further cut down fatalities. There might be a yo yo between infection clusters popping up and subsiding till June end as nations start opening up mid May onwards, but we will all be able to deal with it well.

Sure, we will go 'Oh No. Not again' as surgical lock-downs are enforced and lifted, but the intensity will be low. They will not be the knockout punches of March, but glancing blows. We will be better prepared and will have standard operating procedures in place. I will not be able to celebrate my wife's birthday in mid June with friends, but we never ever did that in the first place.

Prediction 4: Return to Normalcy Begins July: 

Covid will hit some parts of the world in waves through July and Aug but at least in major economies - testing methods will be so different and advanced from what they are now that testing will become ubiquitous. We will have some tech geek or institution come with a non invasive X ray like scanner that will be deployed in public places and we will have pregnancy test type detectors at home. False results will be an exception. The public test systems in transport hubs, offices, and markets will detect infection in seconds - if not less - comparing test results from the tested against huge databases using AI and associated dark arts - telling authorities instantly of infections - so the sick amongst us are removed from crowds, and quarantined.

Prediction 5: By Oct we may not be even tracking of vaccine trials anymore: 

Treatments will improve by Oct enough that even if the virus mutates, stop gap immunity boosters / temp vaccine for health workers and other frontliners will make spreads manageable. The war will continue, but unlike this present world war type large theater effort it will be more surgical - special forces type where as soon as significant clusters are seen - they will be contained and blocked. More effectively and more humanely now.

Economies will have a glorious bounce back around Oct, people will tentatively start travelling around the world in redesigned planes, trains and buses. Uber and other personal transport services will have containment pods to nullify risk to driver and passengers . Companies, champions in certain sectors will start adapting and getting into adjacent sectors in essential services to hedge risks.

Prediction 6: A Scare Again in November:

Around Nov, China and other Asian countries may see another wave but the world we will be all right. I am thinking - China, US France or Great Britain - will have a vaccine ready which they will deploy for frontliners on a need to use basis. A lot of these will be manufactured in India, and as part of the contracts - Indians will also get early access to the vaccine.

Vaccines from around the world will show success by Dec - Jan and production will boom. I may have a couple of friends over for my Birthday in Jan End, if they bring Beer. I will tell them that evening that a week ago Netflix bought the right to my web series. They will pretend to be happy, but wont be.

Hundreds of millions of doses will start rolling out in Jan-Feb. 60 percent of the world population will be vaccinated by March, if natural herd immunity has not kicked in by then. Vaccines will cost around 100 dollars in the developed world, and the cost will be borne by business owners for their employees and families.

In India, and other nations the vaccine will be for around 600 to 700 bucks for those who can afford it, and free for all the others. Cost of the vaccine will keep going down. The immunization programs will be extremely large and widespread - and even safe individuals will get it again. Corporate and govt institutions will scramble and spend to get employees vaccinated asap.

Prediction 7: Back to Normal in April 2021 with only some countries in Africa perhaps struggling for an additional few months. We will not wear masks ( except Instagram influencers out of their need to defy logic ) and the annoying pouts will be out in all their glory by April 27 2021. A year to date from now.

We will be all right. The key as has been from the day this started is to play for time and not let healthcare services be overwhelmed. I think, after a few hard lessons - we are close to passing the phase. Governments can only do so much. Economies will have to be opened else vulnerable societies will descend into civil wars as law and order collapses. As they start opening in May, we as individuals will need to remain vigilant and not go dancing to Saat Samundar Par this soon. Most importantly, we need to avoid anxiety and focus on the positive. For those of us with other medical conditions, we should try to get back in shape. Boost our immunity. Give us a better chance to see this through. Good days will be back again. Let there be no doubt. I am a writer. How can I be wrong.

In every plot, there is a beat sheet that divides the story into three broad acts. I think in this fast developing story of our lives, we are somewhere towards the end of Act 2 right now. It is time for the hero - in this case - the brightest minds in the world - to fight back. And fighting back is what the world is doing. Sure, the dark night of the soul, the moments of despair and other negative beats in the sheet are yet to come, and the bad guys will close in but come Act 3 - our hero will triumph using the skills he always had. The hero in this case is mankind. And the skills we have are courage, spirit of curiosity, and that part of us that fights to have a happy closure.

This is what the natural writer sees as the future. This is the answer I get when i ask myself What If, to questions like pace of vaccine research, treatments, and how governments will respond.

Before we collectively type Fade Out to the Covid Story, I wish you the very best in the days ahead.